Update - Labour lead by 11

Update - Labour lead by 11

Latest YouGov/Sun results 16th April CON 32%, LAB 43%, LD 8%; APP -40

Our latest daily poll for the Sun has topline figures of Conservative 32%, Labour 43%, UKIP 9% and Liberal Democrats 8%. This is a significant jump from the 6 point leads we were showing last week, and the largest Labour lead since before the 'election that never was' in October 2007.

It's also the first time that we have shown UKIP overtaking the Liberal Democrats for third place. Previously we've shown them as high as 8 points back in 2009 after the European elections and the expenses scandal, but back them the Liberal Democrats enjoyed far higher support. With the Liberal Democrats in government and in decline, UKIP have the opportunity to benefit from anti-government votes and the increase their support puts them into third place.

It is, of course, important to note that all polls have a margin of error of around plus or minus three points. This means that 95% of the time we can be confident that the real figure is within three points of what polls show - the other 5% of polls, known as rogue polls, will be even further from the real result.

As such, it is always wise to be cautious about polls that show unusual or unexpected results. It could be the first sign of a new trend in politics...or it could be a rogue sample.

The beauty of daily polling is that we only have to wait 24 hours to find out.

See the survey details and full results here

 

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